High Probability Advisors, LLC
In its 13F for Q1 2025 (holdings as of March 31, 2025, filed April 16, 2025), High Probability Advisors, LLC reported 55 stock positions worth $599.6 million. Its top holding was Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF (GSLC) at 13.7% of the portfolio, followed by iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa (MTUM, 10.0%) and Dimensional US High Profi Et (DUHP, 7.3%). Compared with Q4 2024, it opened 1 new position, sold out of 1, added to 25 and reduced 11. The biggest buy was Schwab Intermediate-Term US (SCHR, shares +197%) and the biggest sale Avantis Emerging Markets Eq (AVEM, shares −9%).
- Most Recent 13F
- Q2 2026
- Location
- Pittsford, NY
- CIK
- 0002039415
- Portfolio Value
- $599.6M (Q1 2025)
- SEC Filing
- 0001667731-25-000440 ↗ filed Apr 16, 2025
Holdings Value
Holdings 55 stocks · $599.6M
| GSLC Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF | 13.66% | 744,020 | $81.9M | Add +1.6% |
| MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa | 10.00% | 296,479 | $59.9M | Add +3.2% |
| DUHP Dimensional US High Profi Et | 7.29% | 1,319,794 | $43.7M | Add +5.0% |
| GSIE Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int | 5.95% | 1,000,164 | $35.7M | Reduce -3.1% |
| NYF iShares New York Muni Bond E | 5.59% | 636,133 | $33.5M | Add +48.7% |
| DIHP Dimensional International Hi | 5.52% | 1,229,342 | $33.1M | Reduce -4.0% |
| USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Fac | 5.45% | 349,019 | $32.7M | Add +2.5% |
| SCHO Schwab Short-Term US Treas | 5.07% | 1,247,756 | $30.4M | Add +13.2% |
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term US | 4.71% | 1,135,878 | $28.2M | Add +197.2% |
| FVAL Fidelity Value Factor ETF | 3.75% | 377,788 | $22.5M | Add +3.8% |
| SPIB SS SPDR P Int C Corp. ETF | 3.64% | 657,009 | $21.8M | Add +5.7% |
| AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value | 3.52% | 241,876 | $21.1M | Add +7.3% |
| DYNF Ishrs US E F R A ETF-Usd Inc. | 3.20% | 393,284 | $19.2M | Add +4.8% |
| FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor ETF | 3.00% | 280,726 | $18.0M | Add +2.7% |
| AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Eq | 2.94% | 293,442 | $17.7M | Reduce -8.8% |
| SHYG iShares 0-5 YR HY Corp. Bond | 2.77% | 391,200 | $16.6M | Add +6.1% |
| IUSV iShares Core S&P U.S. Value | 2.29% | 148,491 | $13.7M | Add +5.0% |
| IVLU iShares MSCI International V | 2.05% | 406,171 | $12.3M | Reduce -6.4% |
| FNDC Schwab Fndmnt Intl SM Eq ETF | 1.82% | 302,187 | $10.9M | Reduce -4.7% |
| SPTL SS SPDR PF LNG TRM TSY E-Usd | 1.47% | 322,481 | $8.8M | Add +13.0% |
| GSSC Goldman Sachs Activebeta US | 1.38% | 130,098 | $8.3M | Add +5.0% |
| VTEB Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | 0.64% | 77,727 | $3.9M | Add +88.5% |
| SPYM Ste STR SPDR PT S&P 500 ETF | 0.60% | 54,483 | $3.6M | Add +11.8% |
| REZ Ishars Res and Multi Reales | 0.33% | 22,937 | $2.0M | Add +21.9% |
| IWV iShares Russell 3000 ETF | 0.27% | 5,180 | $1.6M | No change |
| IXUS iShares Core Intl Stock ETF | 0.27% | 23,196 | $1.6M | Add +4.0% |
| SPY SS SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust-US | 0.26% | 2,825 | $1.6M | Reduce -0.0% |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc. | 0.23% | 82,228 | $1.4M | Reduce -7.4% |
| IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value E | 0.19% | 6,116 | $1.2M | No change |
| DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 | 0.17% | 30,874 | $1.0M | Reduce -0.1% |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | 0.15% | 4,158 | $924K | Reduce -15.2% |
| ACWX iShares MSCI Acwi Ex US ETF | 0.15% | 15,908 | $882K | No change |
| SPMD SS SPDR P S&P 400 Midcap ETF | 0.14% | 16,355 | $837K | Add +12.6% |
| AVB Avalonbay Communities Inc. | 0.12% | 3,318 | $712K | No change |
| SCHB Schwab US Broad Market ETF | 0.12% | 33,054 | $712K | Add +4.8% |
| IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 0.11% | 3,275 | $653K | No change |
| MSFT Microsoft Corp. | 0.10% | 1,645 | $618K | No change |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bo | 0.10% | 4,890 | $578K | Reduce -41.7% |
| GVI iShares Intermediate Governm | 0.08% | 4,751 | $504K | Add +0.6% |
| TT Trane Technologies PLC | 0.08% | 1,360 | $458K | No change |
| DFAT Dimensional US Target Value | 0.07% | 8,672 | $447K | No change |
| OEF iShares S&P 100 ETF | 0.07% | 1,610 | $436K | No change |
| MAA Mid-America Apartment Comm | 0.06% | 2,318 | $388K | No change |
| IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap E | 0.06% | 3,626 | $379K | Reduce -2.2% |
| ACWI iShares MSCI Acwi ETF | 0.06% | 3,253 | $379K | No change |
| IRT Independence Realty Trust Inc. | 0.06% | 16,645 | $353K | No change |
| HIG Hartford Insurance Group Inc. | 0.06% | 2,750 | $340K | No change |
| ETN Eaton Corp. PLC | 0.06% | 1,226 | $333K | No change |
| HD Home Depot Inc. | 0.05% | 781 | $286K | Add +0.1% |
| SUSA iShares ESG Optimized MSCI U | 0.05% | 2,468 | $283K | New |
| DFUV Dimensional US Marketwide Va | 0.05% | 6,646 | $274K | No change |
| UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc. | 0.04% | 481 | $252K | No change |
| SPSM SS SPDR P S&P 600 Small Cap | 0.04% | 6,108 | $249K | Add +14.3% |
| SCHA Schwab US Small-Cap ETF | 0.03% | 8,840 | $207K | No change |
| SUB iShares Short-Term National | 0.03% | 1,950 | $206K | No change |
Portfolio Sells Q4 2024 → Q1 2025
| AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Eq | Reduce -8.8% | 2.94% | −0.45 |
| DIHP Dimensional International Hi | Reduce -4.0% | 5.52% | −0.27 |
| GSIE Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int | Reduce -3.1% | 5.95% | −0.22 |
| FNDC Schwab Fndmnt Intl SM Eq ETF | Reduce -4.7% | 1.82% | −0.12 |
| IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bo | Reduce -41.7% | 0.10% | −0.08 |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | Reduce -15.2% | 0.15% | −0.07 |
| IVLU iShares MSCI International V | Reduce -6.4% | 2.05% | −0.06 |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A | Sold out | 0.00% | −0.05 |
| SPY SS SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust-US | Reduce -0.0% | 0.26% | −0.03 |
| DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 | Reduce -0.1% | 0.17% | −0.02 |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc. | Reduce -7.4% | 0.23% | −0.02 |
| IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap E | Reduce -2.2% | 0.06% | −0.01 |
Portfolio Buys Q4 2024 → Q1 2025
| SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term US | Add +197.2% | 4.71% | +3.05 |
| NYF iShares New York Muni Bond E | Add +48.7% | 5.59% | +1.50 |
| SCHO Schwab Short-Term US Treas | Add +13.2% | 5.07% | +0.31 |
| VTEB Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | Add +88.5% | 0.64% | +0.27 |
| SPTL SS SPDR PF LNG TRM TSY E-Usd | Add +13.0% | 1.47% | +0.13 |
| REZ Ishars Res and Multi Reales | Add +21.9% | 0.33% | +0.06 |
| SUSA iShares ESG Optimized MSCI U | New | 0.05% | +0.05 |
| USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Fac | Add +2.5% | 5.45% | +0.03 |
| IXUS iShares Core Intl Stock ETF | Add +4.0% | 0.27% | +0.01 |
| SPSM SS SPDR P S&P 600 Small Cap | Add +14.3% | 0.04% | −0.00 |
| SPMD SS SPDR P S&P 400 Midcap ETF | Add +12.6% | 0.14% | −0.00 |
| GVI iShares Intermediate Governm | Add +0.6% | 0.08% | −0.00 |
| SPYM Ste STR SPDR PT S&P 500 ETF | Add +11.8% | 0.60% | −0.00 |
| HD Home Depot Inc. | Add +0.1% | 0.05% | −0.01 |
| SCHB Schwab US Broad Market ETF | Add +4.8% | 0.12% | −0.01 |
| SPIB SS SPDR P Int C Corp. ETF | Add +5.7% | 3.64% | −0.01 |
| SHYG iShares 0-5 YR HY Corp. Bond | Add +6.1% | 2.77% | −0.04 |
| IUSV iShares Core S&P U.S. Value | Add +5.0% | 2.29% | −0.06 |
| GSSC Goldman Sachs Activebeta US | Add +5.0% | 1.38% | −0.16 |
| FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor ETF | Add +2.7% | 3.00% | −0.20 |
| DYNF Ishrs US E F R A ETF-Usd Inc. | Add +4.8% | 3.20% | −0.25 |
| FVAL Fidelity Value Factor ETF | Add +3.8% | 3.75% | −0.26 |
| DUHP Dimensional US High Profi Et | Add +5.0% | 7.29% | −0.32 |
| AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value | Add +7.3% | 3.52% | −0.38 |
| MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa | Add +3.2% | 10.00% | −0.66 |
| GSLC Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF | Add +1.6% | 13.66% | −1.46 |
All Filings
| Quarter | Positions | 13F Reported Value | Top Holdings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 75 | $935.0M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, DYNF, NYF |
| Q1 2026 | 67 | $781.4M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, DYNF, GSIE |
| Q4 2025 | 73 | $749.9M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP |
| Q3 2025 | 65 | $729.3M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF |
| Q2 2025 | 60 | $668.7M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF |
| Q1 2025 | 55 | $599.6M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF |
| Q4 2024 | 55 | $557.8M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP |
| Q3 2024 | 57 | $587.2M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP |
| Q2 2024 | 54 | $551.5M | GSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP |
| Q1 2024 | 56 | $539.1M | GSLC, DUHP, GSIE, MTUM, DIHP |