High Probability Advisors, LLC

In its 13F for Q3 2025 (holdings as of September 30, 2025, filed October 14, 2025), High Probability Advisors, LLC reported 65 stock positions worth $729.3 million. Its top holding was Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF (GSLC) at 14.5% of the portfolio, followed by iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa (MTUM, 11.2%) and Dimensional US High Profi Et (DUHP, 7.7%). Compared with Q2 2025, it opened 5 new positions, added to 33 and reduced 8. The biggest buy was Schwab Short-Term US Treas (SCHO, shares +12%) and the biggest sale Ste STR SPDR PT S&P 500 ETF (SPYM, shares −10%).

Most Recent 13F
Q2 2026
Location
Pittsford, NY
CIK
0002039415
Portfolio Value
$729.3M (Q3 2025)
SEC Filing
0002085853-25-000082 ↗ filed Oct 14, 2025

Holdings Value

0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M$800.0M$1.0B Q1 2024: $539.1M Q1 2024 Q2 2024: $551.5M Q2 2024 Q3 2024: $587.2M Q3 2024 Q4 2024: $557.8M Q4 2024 Q1 2025: $599.6M Q1 2025 Q2 2025: $668.7M Q2 2025 Q3 2025: $729.3M $729.3M Q3 2025 Q4 2025: $749.9M Q4 2025 Q1 2026: $781.4M Q1 2026 Q2 2026: $935.0M Q2 2026

Holdings 65 stocks · $729.3M
GSLC Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF 14.49% 810,962 $105.7M Add +1.5%
MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa 11.20% 318,438 $81.7M Add +1.4%
DUHP Dimensional US High Profi Et 7.69% 1,484,014 $56.1M Add +3.1%
GSIE Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int 5.39% 956,661 $39.3M Add +3.1%
NYF iShares New York Muni Bond E 5.15% 704,625 $37.6M Add +5.4%
DIHP Dimensional International Hi 4.91% 1,179,333 $35.8M Add +3.0%
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Fac 4.78% 366,545 $34.9M Add +4.6%
SCHO Schwab Short-Term US Treas 4.76% 1,423,526 $34.7M Add +12.4%
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value 4.16% 304,569 $30.3M Add +2.2%
SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term US 4.11% 1,191,772 $29.9M Add +4.1%
FVAL Fidelity Value Factor ETF 4.04% 427,612 $29.4M Add +3.0%
DYNF Ishrs US E F R A ETF-Usd Inc. 3.47% 428,045 $25.3M Add +3.1%
SPIB SS SPDR P Int C Corp. ETF 3.47% 747,720 $25.3M Add +10.3%
FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor ETF 3.11% 303,348 $22.7M Add +3.0%
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Eq 3.02% 292,976 $22.0M Add +1.5%
SHYG iShares 0-5 YR HY Corp. Bond 2.69% 453,352 $19.6M Add +9.3%
IUSV iShares Core S&P U.S. Value 2.28% 166,629 $16.7M Add +3.7%
IVLU iShares MSCI International V 1.81% 371,320 $13.2M Add +1.8%
FNDC Schwab Fndmnt Intl SM Eq ETF 1.73% 283,413 $12.6M Add +1.7%
GSSC Goldman Sachs Activebeta US 1.57% 153,326 $11.5M Add +3.0%
SPTL SS SPDR PF LNG TRM TSY E-Usd 1.33% 360,490 $9.7M Add +6.8%
VTEB Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF 0.54% 78,195 $3.9M Add +3.2%
SPYM Ste STR SPDR PT S&P 500 ETF 0.52% 48,288 $3.8M Reduce -10.4%
IWV iShares Russell 3000 ETF 0.27% 5,180 $2.0M No change
REZ Ishars Res and Multi Reales 0.27% 23,005 $2.0M Add +0.1%
SPY SS SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust-US 0.25% 2,723 $1.8M Reduce -0.2%
IXUS iShares Core Intl Stock ETF 0.20% 17,657 $1.5M Reduce -10.6%
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value E 0.18% 6,564 $1.3M Add +7.3%
AAPL Apple Inc. 0.17% 4,986 $1.3M Add +10.7%
DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 0.16% 30,828 $1.2M Add +0.0%
ACWX iShares MSCI Acwi Ex US ETF 0.14% 15,908 $1.0M No change
BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc. 0.14% 57,749 $1.0M Reduce -17.4%
SCHB Schwab US Broad Market ETF 0.13% 37,326 $960K Add +2.8%
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 0.13% 1,838 $952K Add +11.5%
SPMD SS SPDR P S&P 400 Midcap ETF 0.12% 15,343 $877K Reduce -8.6%
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF 0.11% 3,275 $792K No change
IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 0.10% 1,068 $715K Add +0.4%
AVB Avalonbay Communities Inc. 0.09% 3,318 $641K No change
TT Trane Technologies PLC 0.08% 1,360 $574K No change
OEF iShares S&P 100 ETF 0.07% 1,616 $538K Add +0.4%
GVI iShares Intermediate Governm 0.07% 4,797 $515K Add +0.1%
DFAT Dimensional US Target Value 0.07% 8,672 $505K No change
GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasur 0.07% 4,795 $481K New
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bo 0.06% 3,878 $464K No change
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 0.06% 1,895 $461K Add +60.5%
ETN Eaton Corp. PLC 0.06% 1,226 $459K No change
ACWI iShares MSCI Acwi ETF 0.06% 3,253 $450K No change
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap E 0.06% 3,554 $422K Reduce -2.0%
TSLA Tesla Inc. 0.05% 847 $377K No change
HIG Hartford Insurance Group Inc. 0.05% 2,750 $367K No change
HD Home Depot Inc. 0.05% 905 $367K Add +15.6%
SUSA iShares ESG Optimized MSCI U 0.05% 2,568 $348K Reduce -0.5%
MAA Mid-America Apartment Comm 0.04% 2,318 $324K No change
DFUV Dimensional US Marketwide Va 0.04% 6,646 $297K No change
SPSM SS SPDR P S&P 600 Small Cap 0.04% 5,975 $277K Reduce -8.5%
IRT Independence Realty Trust Inc. 0.04% 16,645 $273K No change
NVDA Nvidia Corp. 0.04% 1,460 $272K New
V Visa Inc. Class A 0.03% 727 $248K New
SCHA Schwab US Small-Cap ETF 0.03% 8,840 $247K No change
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. 0.03% 743 $234K No change
VEA Vanguard Ftse Developed ETF 0.03% 3,811 $228K New
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B 0.03% 427 $215K No change
DFUS Dimensional US Eq MKT ETF 0.03% 2,891 $209K New
SUB iShares Short-Term National 0.03% 1,950 $208K No change
SPGI S&P Global Inc. 0.03% 419 $204K No change

Portfolio Sells Q2 2025 → Q3 2025
SPYM Ste STR SPDR PT S&P 500 ETF Reduce -10.4% 0.52% −0.07
IXUS iShares Core Intl Stock ETF Reduce -10.6% 0.20% −0.03
BNL Broadstone Net Lease Inc. Reduce -17.4% 0.14% −0.03
SPMD SS SPDR P S&P 400 Midcap ETF Reduce -8.6% 0.12% −0.02
SPSM SS SPDR P S&P 600 Small Cap Reduce -8.5% 0.04% −0.00
SPY SS SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust-US Reduce -0.2% 0.25% −0.00
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap E Reduce -2.0% 0.06% −0.00
SUSA iShares ESG Optimized MSCI U Reduce -0.5% 0.05% −0.00

Portfolio Buys Q2 2025 → Q3 2025
SCHO Schwab Short-Term US Treas Add +12.4% 4.76% +0.14
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value Add +2.2% 4.16% +0.10
DYNF Ishrs US E F R A ETF-Usd Inc. Add +3.1% 3.47% +0.09
FVAL Fidelity Value Factor ETF Add +3.0% 4.04% +0.07
SPIB SS SPDR P Int C Corp. ETF Add +10.3% 3.47% +0.07
GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasur New 0.07% +0.07
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Eq Add +1.5% 3.02% +0.06
GSSC Goldman Sachs Activebeta US Add +3.0% 1.57% +0.05
FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor ETF Add +3.0% 3.11% +0.04
NVDA Nvidia Corp. New 0.04% +0.04
AAPL Apple Inc. Add +10.7% 0.17% +0.04
DUHP Dimensional US High Profi Et Add +3.1% 7.69% +0.03
V Visa Inc. Class A New 0.03% +0.03
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A Add +60.5% 0.06% +0.03
VEA Vanguard Ftse Developed ETF New 0.03% +0.03
DFUS Dimensional US Eq MKT ETF New 0.03% +0.03
SHYG iShares 0-5 YR HY Corp. Bond Add +9.3% 2.69% +0.02
IVLU iShares MSCI International V Add +1.8% 1.81% +0.01
IUSV iShares Core S&P U.S. Value Add +3.7% 2.28% +0.01
MSFT Microsoft Corp. Add +11.5% 0.13% +0.01
HD Home Depot Inc. Add +15.6% 0.05% +0.01
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value E Add +7.3% 0.18% +0.01
SCHB Schwab US Broad Market ETF Add +2.8% 0.13% +0.00
OEF iShares S&P 100 ETF Add +0.4% 0.07% +0.00
IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF Add +0.4% 0.10% −0.00
DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 Add +0.0% 0.16% −0.00
GVI iShares Intermediate Governm Add +0.1% 0.07% −0.01
SPTL SS SPDR PF LNG TRM TSY E-Usd Add +6.8% 1.33% −0.01
GSLC Goldman Activebeta US LC ETF Add +1.5% 14.49% −0.01
REZ Ishars Res and Multi Reales Add +0.1% 0.27% −0.01
VTEB Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF Add +3.2% 0.54% −0.02
FNDC Schwab Fndmnt Intl SM Eq ETF Add +1.7% 1.73% −0.02
NYF iShares New York Muni Bond E Add +5.4% 5.15% −0.06
MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Fa Add +1.4% 11.20% −0.09
GSIE Goldman Sachs Activebeta Int Add +3.1% 5.39% −0.11
DIHP Dimensional International Hi Add +3.0% 4.91% −0.13
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Fac Add +4.6% 4.78% −0.14
SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term US Add +4.1% 4.11% −0.18

All Filings

QuarterPositions13F Reported ValueTop Holdings
Q2 2026 75$935.0MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, DYNF, NYF
Q1 2026 67$781.4MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, DYNF, GSIE
Q4 2025 73$749.9MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP
Q3 2025 65$729.3MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF
Q2 2025 60$668.7MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF
Q1 2025 55$599.6MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, NYF
Q4 2024 55$557.8MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP
Q3 2024 57$587.2MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP
Q2 2024 54$551.5MGSLC, MTUM, DUHP, GSIE, DIHP
Q1 2024 56$539.1MGSLC, DUHP, GSIE, MTUM, DIHP